.png)
“The only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history”, such an apt statement for the current state of our international affairs. As the world shifts to inoculation as the core strategy against Covid-19, there is a mad scramble for vaccines. The consequence is an ongoing inequality. Wealthier countries snapped up supplies and are choosing strategic recipients to donate the surplus. This is not surprising, offering aid in exchange for geopolitical advantage is a timeless strategy. However, past experiences show that we can set aside the competition and effectively mitigate the Covid-19 crisis. The current method of offering help when it is convenient to do so (unless another country’s spiralling situation threatens their own interests), is short-sighted. The rise of variants has shown that everyone needs to be quickly vaccinated. Political interests are getting in the way as lives will continue to be lost.
In February 2021, Duke University’s vaccine contract tracker revealed that the EU ordered enough doses to vaccinate its people more than twice. Canada has about five times more than necessary to fully vaccinate its population. The US has 2.6 billion doses, enough to cover 396 percent of its population. Collectively, wealthier nations control over 70 percent of vaccines that are available for this year. In the next month, they blocked a bid to waive the World Trade Organisation’s patent rights, preventing manufacturers from boosting vaccine production for developing countries. They prioritised vaccine revenue over public health and wellbeing. Truly a “catastrophic moral failure”.
It is rather disappointing when countries who dominate access to the vaccine supply boast about their support for the global vaccine sharing scheme, claiming to help carry out inoculation equitably around the world. More disappointment follows knowing that currently, the COVAX scheme is falling short of its promises.
Current major players in vaccine diplomacy and their approaches
There are multiple stakeholders who are engaged and/or still engaging in vaccine diplomacy efforts, but for the sake of brevity the focus will be largely on the bigger players - China, the United States and key G20 members.
After announcing their home-grown vaccines as a “global public good” in the May 2021 World Health Assembly meeting, China has been the biggest contributor in the developing world’s vaccination campaign. Chinese vaccines have found their way to Southeast Asia, Western Asia, North Africa and South America. Hundreds of thousands of Sinovac and Sinopharm vaccines have been donated to, or purchased by, the receiving countries.
The headline is that the wealthy Western countries have failed the developing world by signing deals with pharmaceutical companies and depriving others from equitable access. Though this sentiment is also shared by international organisations like Amnesty International, WHO and the UN, it is abundantly clear that China is also offering vaccines in exchange for significant benefits - a stronger commercial presence in the developing world, eroding international trust for the wealthier countries, and strengthening its position in political matters such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the South China Sea and the Taiwan issue. The country has taken advantage of the vaccine scarcity to better its position on other complex national concerns.
Similarly, Russia and India offered their own vaccine technology to help inoculate the world and boost their position in other areas of interest. The former initiated talks with the Bolivian government on access to mines and nuclear projects promptly after delivering a batch of its home-grown Sputnik V vaccine. Just like China, Russia is also introducing vaccine technology and production capabilities to developing countries. This generosity prolongs the political advantage. On the other hand, India aimed to establish greater international clout by competing with China in vaccine distribution. Vying to demonstrate its title as a global pharmaceutical powerhouse, the country speedily manufactured and exported AstraZeneca vaccines.
Yet all of their approaches have flaws. Chinese vaccines have taken a hit in reliability. Medical workers in Thailand and Indonesia still contracted the virus despite being inoculated with Sinovac. India’s devastating second Covid-19 wave forced the country to delay major vaccine exports and prioritise domestic immunisation. Russia faced pressure for delaying shipments as its manufacturing speed is trying to catch up to ambitious promises made earlier in the year. Clearly, the clumsy implementation process is a reminder that lofty ideals risk overstretching capabilities. It also hints to the general public living in recipient countries to evaluate international aid more holistically.
As China’s vaccines rapidly spread across the world, the wealthier nations are trying to catch up. They are using vaccine diplomacy as a defensive strategy to curb what they perceive as growing Chinese influence. By June, the US made its first major pledge in support of global vaccine provision. The country promised to purchase 500 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine for the COVAX scheme. With a statement clearly directed at China, US President Joe Biden said that their vaccines are provided with “no strings attached”. Other G7 countries have followed up with their own pledges, with the United Kingdom promising to share 100 million doses worldwide over the next 12 months. However, the pace is still too slow. As of 9th July, the COVAX distribution scheme received fewer than one percent of the roughly 530 million surplus doses pledged by wealthy countries.
From the perspective of global health, their efforts are too late - look at the current state of Southeast Asia, whose countries have been desperately seeking for vaccines since the Delta variant began wreaking havoc in the second quarter of 2021. Their relatively weaker healthcare structure and lack of medical resources have resulted in a weaker response to the surge in infection. They are pushed to scramble for other solutions, such as mixing vaccine doses. In countries like Malaysia and Indonesia, the latest wave has lowered public confidence and further impaired the healthcare infrastructure. Even as vaccines are trickling into the region, these few months have been and will continue to be extremely traumatic for the region.
History shows that past examples of vaccine diplomacy can bridge political divide
Countries are fundamentally always seeking ways to gain power over rivals. In Anarchy and Struggle for Power, realist scholar John Mearsheimer argues that “No amount of cooperation can eliminate the dominating logic of security competition”. Even opportunities where there are aligned shared interests, such as collective health security through worldwide vaccine distribution, will turn into a stage for rivalry and jostling.
However, there are historic examples which illustrate vaccine diplomacy’s powerful potential in eradicating deadly diseases. For example, cooperation between the US and Soviet Union in the 1950s led to a sustained collaboration in eradicating polio. It seems surreal, given that the Cold War era is marked by deep divides and mutual distrust. Together, the two parties tested a polio vaccine for 5 years in the US, before vaccinating 100 million people in the USSR. This massive project began with a friendship between a Soviet and an American virology scientist. Both were strictly supervised by their corresponding authorities. Over years, they underwent intensive interrogations before cross-border visits. The US-USSR cooperation continued on other diseases in the 60s. The successful global eradication of smallpox was engineered by the USSR's smallpox vaccine technology and the US’s financial support.
Historical hindsight is simultaneously ridiculing the current split approach in vaccine distribution, while pointing towards the potential of combating the ongoing pandemic more cooperatively. The main difference between the current situation and the Cold War polio vaccine experience is the view that vaccines are national security assets. The heavy involvement of medical and scientific research communities in distribution has waned as the power shifted to the highest level of the government.
Looking ahead, the gap between the developed and developing countries needs more work. As of 23 July, Bloomberg’s statistics show that the highest incomes are getting vaccinated more than 30 times faster than those with the lowest. It will take another 8 months to inoculate 75% of the global population. That is still a long way to go.
Works Cited
Arnold, Michael, and Jinshan Hong. “Delta Engulfs Southeast Asia With Fastest-Growing Deaths.” Bloomberg.com, Bloomberg , 16 July 2021, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-15/delta-engulfs-southeast-asia-with-world-s-fastest-growing-deaths.
Chan, Vanesse. “Record Daily Covid-19 Death Toll in Indonesia.” Scmp.com, South China Morning Post, 29 July 2021, www.scmp.com/video/coronavirus/3142944/indonesia-mourns-coronavirus-victims-daily-death-toll-reached-another.
Dellanna, Alessio. “Amnesty International Slams Rich Countries for Hoarding COVID Vaccines.” Euronews.com, Euronews, 7 Apr. 2021, www.euronews.com/2021/04/07/amnesty-international-denounces-rich-countries-for-hoarding-covid-vaccines.
Farge, Emma, and Matthias Blamont. “Who Tells Rich Countries: Stop Cutting the Vaccines Queue.” Reuters.com, Thomson Reuters, 8 Jan. 2021, www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-idUSKBN29D2AK.
Hotez, Peter J. “‘Vaccine Diplomacy’: Historical Perspectives and Future Directions.” PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Edited by Sara Lustigman, vol. 8, no. 6, 26 June 2014, doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002808.
Karásková, Ivana, and Veronika Blablová. “The Logic of China's Vaccine Diplomacy.” The Diplomat, Diplomat Media Inc., 24 Mar. 2021, thediplomat.com/2021/03/the-logic-of-chinas-vaccine-diplomacy/.
Lal, Neeta. “As US and China Offer Coronavirus Aid, India Wary of Hidden Agendas.” Scmp.com, South China Morning Post, 27 Apr. 2021, www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3131268/us-and-china-offer-coronavirus-aid-india-wary-hidden.
Leng, Shumei, and Caiyu Liu. “Rich Countries Snap up 70% of Global Vaccines, Challenging Vaccine Equity: Report.” Globaltimes.cn, Global Times, 14 Feb. 2021, www.globaltimes.cn/page/202102/1215623.shtml.
Linnane, Ciara. “UN Chief Joins Who in Slamming Rich Countries for Hogging Covid Vaccines.” MarketWatch, MarketWatch Inc., 18 Feb. 2021, www.marketwatch.com/story/un-chief-joins-who-in-slamming-rich-countries-for-hogging-covid-vaccines-11613664393.
Litvinova, Daria. “Russia Scores Points with Vaccine Diplomacy, but Snags Arise.” AP NEWS, The Associated Press, 7 Mar. 2021, apnews.com/article/europe-global-trade-middle-east-diplomacy-moscow-e61ebd3c8fe746c60f5ecc1ec323c99a.
Mearsheimer, John. “Anarchy and the Struggle for Power.” The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: Norton, 2001, pp. 66–67.
Newey, Sarah Newey, and Paul Nuki. “G7 Vaccine Largesse All Hinges on Timing, Says Covax.” The Telegraph, Telegraph Media Group, 11 June 2021, www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/g7-vaccine-largesse-hinges-timing-says-covax/.
Newey, Sarah, et al. “All Talk, No Jabs: The Reality of Global Vaccine Diplomacy.” The Telegraph, Telegraph Media Group, 9 July 2021, www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/talk-no-jabs-reality-global-vaccine-diplomacy/.
Pannu, Jaspreet, and Michele Barry. “The State Inoculates: Vaccines as Soft Power.” The Lancet Global Health, vol. 9, no. 6, 2021, doi:10.1016/s2214-109x(21)00091-7.
Pietsch, Bryan. “Hundreds of Thais Inoculated with Sinovac Are Infected as Cases Spike in Southeast Asia.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 19 July 2021, www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/07/12/coronavirus-latest-updates/.
Rahman, Serina. “Commentary: Malaysia's White Flag Movement a Symbol of Hope and Helping Each Other.” Channelnewsasia.com, Mediacorp Pte Ltd., 9 July 2021, www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/malaysia-s-white-flag-movement-umno-government-covid-19-15179086.
Randall, Tom, et al. “More Than 3.98 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker .” Bloomberg.com, Bloomberg, accessed on 23 July 2021, www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/.
Riley-Smith, Ben, and Lucy Fisher. “Britain to Give 100 Million Covid Vaccines to Other Countries as Part of G7 PUSH.” The Telegraph, Telegraph Media Group, 11 June 2021, www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/11/britain-give-100-million-covid-vaccines-countries-part-g7-push/.
Simao, Paul. “Vietnam Agrees to Tech Transfers on Russian, U.S. COVID-19 Vaccines.” Edited by Ed Davies, Reuters.com, Thomson Reuters, 20 July 2021, www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/vietnam-says-agrees-tech-transfers-russian-us-covid-19-vaccines-2021-07-20/.
Singh, Akanksha. “Modi's Vaccine Diplomacy Leaves India at Mercy of Others' Political Agendas.” Scmp.com, South China Morning Post, 30 Apr. 2021, www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3131562/how-modis-vaccine-diplomacy-has-left-india-mercy-others-political.
Swanson, William. “Birth of a Cold War Vaccine.” Scientific American, vol. 306, no. 4, 2012, pp. 66–69., doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0412-66.
Tharoor, Shashi. “Commentary: What's behind India's Generous Vaccine Diplomacy?” Channelnewsasia.com, Mediacorp Pte Ltd, 14 Mar. 2021, www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/india-vaccine-diplomacy-serum-astra-zeneca-oxford-covax-china-14392598.
Wongcha-um, Panu, and Panarat Thepgumpanat. “In First, Thailand to Mix Sinovac, Astrazeneca Vaccine Doses.” Reuters.com, Thomson Reuters, 12 July 2021, www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-starts-tighter-coronavirus-lockdown-around-capital-2021-07-12/.